中国经济周期波动特点测度和经验

【Abstract】wWw.shuoshilunwen.com Growth and fluctuations are two key themes of macroeconomics. Economic growth is a long-run issue, while in the short-run there exists economic fluctuations. Business fluctuation is the manifestation of economic growth. From the absolute sense, any economy does not develop steadily and linearly, and any growth is achieved in the fluctuations, which is deeply verified again by the global financial crisis sourced from Sub-prime crisis in USA,2007.Business cycle fluctuation is the main form of economic fluctuations. It has been more than 100 years since western economists started to study business cycle fluctuations, but it was not until reform and opening up (1979) that the research on China’s business cycle fluctuation started. However, with several ups and downs, the cyclical fluctuations he also shown its unique new features. Therefore, according to the actual conditions of our country, there arises great need for systematic and thorough summarization of the characteristics and laws of the economic fluctuation of China by developing the analytical and measurement method of business cycle fluctuation, which serves for socialist economic construction. That is not only of important methodological and theoretical significance, but also an urgent requirement to promote healthy and stable development of China’s economy.Based on the study of meanings, empirical analytical methodology, stylized facts of business cycle fluctuations and their relationships, this paper dresses with the clue from measurement to empirical analysis, combining knowledge of macroeconomics, econometrics and statistics. Firstly, the paper gives a generalization and comments of modern business cycle fluctuations measurement methods and empirical characteristic. Secondly, based on gathering large amount of China’s macroeconomic data since 2000, it applies CF filtering approaches to decompose cycle part from original series, employs kinds of techniques such as standard error, time difference correlation coefficient and skewness statistic to analyze the volatility, co-movement and asymmetry of China’s business cycle fluctuations respectively, concludes stylized facts of China’s business cycle fluctuations, and then compares them with similar studies at home and abroad. It suggests that the empirical characteristics and stylized facts of China’s business cycle fluctuations follow to generality in most other studies while he relatively independent particularities.Overall, through this study, we can see that although China has ensured a relatively high rate of economic growth in low inflation and low unemployment since 2000, and walked out of financial crisis and quickly restored industrial production through increasing growth of investment; yet the economic restructuring that china has long been trying to explore has no significant effect, which manifests in limited development of tertiary industry, years of low consumption growth, uneven distribution of labor remuneration and speculative stock market with large fluctuations, and these problems he become the bottlenck that restricts the further healthy development of China’s market economy.