固定资产投资和中国经济周期波动关系实证

【Abstract】wWw.shuoshilunwen.com In the Modern Economic Cycle Theory, investment fluctuations he been considered the main reason of economic fluctuations, main indicators of economic cycle. Through the relationship research between the fixed assets investment and the economic cycle since China’s reform and opening up, we can find the cycle of China macro-economic (hereinafter referred to economy fluctuations) is basically the same to China’s fixed assets investment. Investment fluctuations are of high correlation with economic fluctuations. The fluctuations of fixed assets investment are always the main source of economic fluctuations and economic fluctuations also he a huge impact on fixed assets investment. The year with more fixed assets investment is often the peak years of each economic cycle, and year with less fixed assets investment is often the trough year of each economic cycle. Moreover, the level of investment fluctuations is much higher than the economic fluctuations.Economic Growth Theory shows that investment plays an important role in economic growth of a country. The growth of fixed assets investment is of unparalleled importance in China’s economic growth every year since China’s reform and opening up and it is the most important factor leading to China’s sustained rapid economic growth. Econometric analysis results show that increasing fixed assets investment year by year has pushed up the strong domestic demand and improved the economy’s supply capacity and become the main driving force of China’s economic growth. Based on the comparative study of investment, consumption and import and export contribution to GDP growth rate shows since China’s reform and opening-up, the rapid economic growth is largely pushed up by investment and of high dependence with fixed assets investment while a country’s final demand that is consumer demand is obviously inadequate.In order to ensure China’s economic growth with less dependence on the pulling force with fixed assets investment, we should actively expand domestic demand and increase consumer demand. Experience in economic development of many countries show that whether investment in fixed assets can stimulate economic growth depends on the expanding final consumer demand. It is not sustainable if there is no consumption to support fixed asset investment and economic growth. In the macroeconomic theory, investment contributing to economic growth is driven by its own needs and is also driven by the size of the investment multiplier which is determined by the marginal consumption tendency. Therefore, the ratio of China’s consumption and investment should be coordinated.By reviewing the process of investment and economic fluctuations since China’s reform, we can see that the peak’s arrival of China’s economic growth and investment is most affected by the macro-economic policy. When the economy is running hot, the Government will take tightened macroeconomic policies to compress the scale of investment, and when the economy is running into low level, they will adopt expansionary macroeconomic policies to stimulate investment and thus stimulate demand and economic growth. As a result, the cycle of compression in the scale of investment - expansion - and then compression - and then the expansion appears and thereby cause fluctuations in the economy.In summary, this paper points out by improving the timeliness of macroeconomic policy and dividing macro-control tools more detailed, macroeconomic policy can be more scientific and by minimizing fluctuations in the economy we can achieve steady economic growth targets; By improving the quality of investment, adjusting investment structure, reduction of economic growth on investment growth, dependence; reduce the current high investment rate and by reducing investment fluctuations to oid economic growth fluctuations. Finally, we need to adjust China’s economic structure and industry structure to push economic growth mode changing from extensive to intensive and improve the efficiency of resource allocation, so that we can achieve sustained economic growth and positive circle.