美国经济波动对中国经济影响

【Abstract】wWw.shuoshilunwen.com At this time of the world’s economy crisis, it’s so necessary to find out how much trouble China’s whole economy, especially the part of foreign trade, is suffered during this hard period, and what we should do first to minimize the bad effects of the crisis.Based on the classical theory and newly researches, this paper compares the data of China’s economy with the related foreign trade datum, especially with the data of the export to the U.S., and figures out the ratio of dependence on foreign trade of China between the year 1999 and 2008. Analyzed the entire datum above, the paper puts the result forward that the effect of the foreign trade on the development of the economy is so noticeable that its contribution to the GDP is growing all through the period. At the same time, the ratio of dependence on foreign trade is in a high degree, and the ratio of dependence on foreign trade to the U.S. is also rising slowly. With the data between 2005 and 2009 of the U.S. economy, the export of China and other four related elements, this paper applies co-integration tests, VAR model, impulse response function and Ecms, in order to find out how much the U.S. financial crisis affects the export of China. The result shows the demand of the U.S. market, the import and PPI are positive to the export, while the labor cost, the industrial added value and the exchange rate are negative to the export.Putting an analysis on the conditions of the world’s economy and the foreign trade, the issue suggests that in order to conquer all the difficulties faced by China in the world’s economy decision crisis, it’s better for our government to make further effort to change the developing methods of the foreign trade of China, focus on the improvement of the labors’skills, optimize the structure of the industry, promote the growth of the“low carbon economy”, try to improve the people’s welfare, expand the new market abroad, and stabilize the exchange rate of the RMB.