美国金融危机传染路径选择

【Abstract】wWw.shuoshilunwen.com Last decades, financial crises break out frequently. The most of former financial crises originated from developing country, but now, the US financial crisis root in subprime mortgage crisis originates form the most developed country, the United Station. Due to high correlation between global economy and the US, this financial is spreading all over the world. And on the process, the contagion is oidless.Although the word "contagion" is a relative new term in economics, frequent financial crises drew lots of economist’s focus on this word. Based on their works, this thesis will explore the US financial crisis contagion combining its own features.After defining the contagion and mechani of contagion, this thesis focuses its attention on the selection of contagion path. And then, defines the contagion path as the sequence of markets that financial crisis passes through. For the convenience of modeling, limits the contagion path to 2 basic categories: real economy path and financial market path. Combination of the 2 basic categories generates 3 paths: real economy path, financial market path and hybrid path.And then, applies the SVAR model to data of Canada, Mexico and China. Through the method of variance decompositions and impulse responses function, tests the hypothesis about selection of contagion path, and the result is compatible with the argumentation.Finally, based on the analysis of the US financial crisis effect, this thesis proposes a suitable scheme for China from the viewpoint of international economic relationship…Participate in and promotes the Asian economic cooperation; weaken the relation with the US.