美国金融危机传染路径实证

【Abstract】wWw.shuoshilunwen.com Nowadays, with economic globalization and financial internationalization, a national financial crisis quickly spread to other countries and regions, leading to regional and global crisis. As the result of the more increasingly close relationship among countries in the world and the more frequency of the financial crisis, its consequences are increasingly more destructive. Especially U.S. financial crisis in 2008 triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has led to turmoil in the U.S. capital markets and the economy recession, and the major economies around the world he led to different extents through the contagion of the capital markets, trade and confidence channels. Therefore, it is a common issue facing all countries that how to control the spread of the financial crisis.This paper attempts to study U.S. financial crisis spread by quantitative analysis. The article first describes the context of financial contagion research scholars at home and abroad, to make a clear understanding of the infection on the financial crisis, and then from a historical view he a analysis about the main path of the financial crisis spread while summarize the general path of the financial crisis spread, for example the trade, capital markets, banking and psychological expectations. On the basic of this, the paper conclude that the new features of the U.S. financial crisis compared with the previous performance of the financial crisis spread, and focus on the contagion path of the U.S. financial crisis. Then by use of the methods in econometrics, for example, unit root test, Granger causality test and impulse response functions, this paper analyze the contagion effect of the financial crisis in the Unite States, and come to the contagion specific path among the country (region) in the financial crisis. After that, this paper focuses on financial market in China during the U.S. financial crisis and puts forward the proposals to prevent financial contagion in the context of economic globalization.