能源冲击对我国宏观经济影响

【Abstract】wWw.shuoshilunwen.com Since the 70s of last century,the economy of China is deceloping at a high speed and the energy consumer is increasing continuously,which mean the rising and fluctuation of energy price he a significant effect on Chinese macroeconomic.Becaese of this,discussing the tranission mechani of energy price impact and evaluating the impact of energy price change are becoming very significant.By contacting theory with practice,this paper makes a deep study on the effect of energy price bringing to Chinese macroeconomic. At first, according to Statistics and economics, this paper discusses Chinese macroeconomic and energy distribution situation theoretically and analyzes the tranission mechani of energy price impact. After reading a lot of documents, this paper gives the pricing mechani of oil,coal,power,natural gas. Then establishing real business cycle (RBC) model to analyze the impact of energy price change empirically. Accoding the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory (DSGE), the paper gives the solution of the model.After that using calibration to estimate parameters of the model. When all of these are finished,using the matlab program to simulate the model to test the eaplanatory power. The result indicates that the impact of energy price change has an influence on the consume,investment,labor and economic growth of China. At last through empirical research based on vector auto-regression between 1999 to 2010, we find that the increase of energy price has a negative impact on the growth of industrial value added, promotes the rising of consumer price index and hanpers the growing up of net exports. And there is a lag of those effects.At the end of this paper, occording to the experience of developed countries, this paper gives relevant measures to response the shock of energy price from energy reserve.energy serve,energy cooperation and energy upgrate.