我国股市和宏观经济周期波动关联性检验

【Abstract】wWw.shuoshilunwen.com In recent years, the relationship between the development of financial market and the growth of economic is closer than before. The analysis between the relationship on the two in-depth from the macro to the micro-environment around domestic and foreign scholars, then they research it from the theoretical relationship to the establishment of various models, they study it from different times between the growth of financial markets and economic relevance. The fluctuation of the stock market volatility has some impact on the economic growth. The economic policy guide the stock market to a primary way. The stock market is generally considered as the economy“weatherglass”of a country’s economic. The development of the stock market reflected quality of the economic through the recently development. In developed countries, the two cycles are basically on the same operating conditions, because they he mature market. Since 1992, China’s stock market has just founded, it developed rapidly. It is an important channel for the capital owners and the people in need of funds for intermediation. From a long-running point, China’s stock market can be consistent, but in a short period, there is a big departure of the relationship between the two cycles.Firstly, this article reviews the theory of the development process about the stock market cycle and economic cycle, and then it introduces the origin respectively, the characteristics, and the present situation of the two cycles. In the section literature review, we introduce the relationship between domestic and foreign scholars study about a variety models, then get the conclusions. This paper adopts the economic data after 1992 quarter to study the relationship between the two cycles. It has a total of 72 dates, we use the X-12 seasonal adjustment method, excluding irregular factors and seasonal factors. And then use the H-P filtered on the cycle. We get the two economic indicators cycle. We can find out the relationship between the two cycles. We adopt the co-integration test to examine a long-term relationship between China’s stock market cycle and the economic cycle. At last the Granger causality test whether they are reciprocity. We compare the theory and the conclusions to test their accord. We combine with China’s actual national conditions, analysis of the status for reasons which are consistent with the conclusions, make appropriate policy and give operational proposals.