100多年前,马克思在《资本论》中就指出,随着经济的发展及资本积累,资本有机构成必定会提高,必定会出现相对过剩人口1。马克思的相对过剩人口理论集中在他的巨著《资本论》第1卷第7篇第23章中。它从资本的有机构成及其提高的趋势出发,说明了相对过剩人口的产生、结果、本质和形式。马克思的相对过剩人口理论揭示了相对过剩人口是资本主义所特有的人口规律,是资本主义制度的必定产物。我国传统政治经济学在阐述马克思的相对过剩人口理论时,也始终将相对过剩人口限制在资本主义的范畴之内,认为这是资本主义生产方式所特有的社会现象和经济范畴,是资本主义社会制度的必定产物。然而,社会经济发展的历史实践却与传统政治经济学理论发生了冲突。我国社会主义市场经济条件下也存在大量过剩劳动力,失业不再是资本主义所特有的经济现象,我国出现了失业人口已是一个不争的事实。面对越来越严峻的就业形势,如何理解马克思的相对过剩人口理论就显得尤为的关键。目前理论界普遍承认马克思的相对过剩人口理论仍然适合我国现阶段出现的失业现象,对解决我国的就业不足仍具有指导作用,马克思主义经济学是一门发展着的科学体系,因而深入探讨和发展马克思的相对过剩人口理论,并把它有效应用于我国当前的失业不足研究,具有重大的理论价值和实践意义。本文通过对马克思“相对过剩人口”理论的浅析浅析,结合中国的实际,把其区分为相对过剩人口Ⅰ和相对过剩人口Ⅱ,其中相对过剩人口Ⅰ定义为具体表现出来的失业,即显性失业;相对过剩人口Ⅱ定义为虽然处在就业岗位之中,却没有起到应有作用的那部分人口,即隐性失业。有效就业人口与无效就业人口(相对过剩人口Ⅱ)之和构成名义就业人口。这样,在中国,马克思的相对过剩人口就分成了相对过剩人口Ⅰ和相对过剩人口Ⅱ。本文将运用数据包络浅析浅析(DEA)策略计算出了相对过剩人口Ⅱ量,在理论上证明其在中国确实存在。并通过建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,运用脉冲响应函数、Granger因果关系检验、方差分解对经济增长与名义就业量、有效就业量分别进行浅析浅析,最后得出一些结论。
【Abstract】wWw.shuoshilunwen.com More than 100 years ago, Marx in "Capital Theory" pointed out that, along with economic development and capital accumulation, the organic composition of capital will be improved, there will be a relative surplus population.Marx’s overspill theory was expatiated most in 23rd chapter of 7th section of 1st volume in . From the aspect of capital organic structure and rising trend,it explained labor overspill in fields of generation,result,character and forms. In the theory it is believed that the overspill an unique phenomenon in capitalist society,as an byproduct of capital society. In the traditional political economy of China the overspill theory shares the same idea as in“capital theory”. However, along with the social and economy development,one conflict happens with the traditional political economy. In the socialist market economy,there still exists labor spill. So it is can not concluded that labor overspill only exists in capitalist society. Nowadays,unemployment in China is much more serious. Facing the truth,how to explain and master Max’overspill theory is much more pivotal. According to other scholars,Max’overspill theory is still suitable to apply in China to explain present unemployment phenomenon.Because Max’overspill theory is an extendable scientific theory,and there is also grand practical and theoretical meaning of explaining present unemployment theory in China.This article bases on the analysis of Marx’s overspill theory,combining the fact of Chinese,and divides relative overspill into two parts,namely overspillⅠand relative overspillⅡ,and also using date envelope analysis (DEA) to compute relative overspillⅡ,the DEA results illustrate that China exists relative overspillⅡ. Following by building VAR model,impulse response function,Granger Casualty Test,ANOVA and so on to analyze economic growth,normal employment and valid employment,finally we draw some significant conclusions.
【关键词】 相对过剩人口Ⅱ；DEA策略；VAR模型；脉冲响应浅析浅析；方差分解；
【Key words】 relative overspillⅡ；Date Envelope Analysis；VAR；impulse response analysis；ANOVA；
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