二战前后世界经济波动状况理由探究

【Abstract】wWw.shuoshilunwen.com Before and after World WarⅡ, great changes of the fluctuations in the world economy took place, as follows:before World WarⅡ, fluctuation of world economy was wide, while after Word WorldⅡ, economic fluctuation is flat. For this phenomenon, the academic community explains it in many ways, mainly from the scientific and technological revolution, monopoly capitali, internationali, consumer behior, little impulse to invest. Unfortunately, we do not find out from the many explanations, which mainly led to difference of economic fluctuations before, and after World WarⅡ. Some explanations do not explain the phenomenon well, or are not reasonable.To compensate the shortcomings and to give a consistent, persuasive interpretation, the paper selects the perspective of the economic cyclical and non-cyclical fluctuation of the word, before and after World WarⅡ, which is a relatively new perspective. Although the research on the economic cyclical and non cyclical fluctuation of the word, before and after World WarⅡis not an unusual thing in the recent years, it is a relatively new research direction to combine the economic cyclical and non cyclical fluctuation of the word with difference of the economic fluctuation before and after World WarⅡ,then explain the fluctuation of the world economy after World WarⅡ.This paper uses H-P filtered GDP growth rate of the different countries world’ chat and the correlation coefficient as proof of the world economy’ cyclical fluctuations and non cyclical fluctuations. We come to an conclusion that the economic fluctuation was cyclical before World WarⅡ,while non cyclical after World WarⅡ.In this paper, the first theoretical assumption is that when the economy fluctuation of the countries all over the word is cyclical, the entire world economic fluctuation will be wide; when the economy fluctuation of the countries all over the word is non cyclical, the entire world economic fluctuation will be flat. It well explains the phenomenon that the word economic fluctuation was wide before World WarⅡ,while flat after World WarⅡ.To give an explanation of the phenomenon that the word economic fluctuation was wide before World WarⅡ,while flat after World War Ⅱ,this paper also made a further-more study. The article starts from the long-we theory, and make a contrast of the economic gap among the advanced countries and the catching-up counties. We come to an conclusion that in the first half of the long we, the advanced countries and the catching-up countries’ economic development gap is deep, so that the word economic cyclical fluctuation is excellent; in the latter stage of the long-we, the advanced countries and less advanced countries reduces the gap between the economic development, the world economy non-cyclical fluctuation is significant.The article from the perspective of theoretical and empirical analysis confirms that changes among the world economic cyclical and non-cyclical fluctuations, and then the situation of the word economic fluctuation before and after World WarⅡwas further explained.Currently being experienced with information technology as the representative of the new long-we, the cyclical of world economic fluctuation is gradually strengthening. The reason for the outbreak of worldwide economic crisis has a great relationship with today’s gradually emerging economic cyclical. With the advanced countries gradually entering a declining stage of the long-we, the gap of the advanced countries and less advanced countries will be narrow. The world economy will be further strengthened with the cyclical fluctuations. So for some time in the world economic fluctuation may further be increased. China should actively take proactive measures to maintain healthy economic development, to oid the impact of fluctuations in the world economy. Combination of the article and national conditions, this paper proposes four-point proposals:to restructure the economy to achieve industrial upgrading, and narrow the gap between our country and the developed countries; the tranormation of economic growth mode, relying on domestic demand and promoting development; accelerate technological innovation, highlighting the importance of the technical innovation’ stablizing the economic fluctuation; grasp of the laws of the impact of the word economic fluctuations, based on rational scientific theory of regulation.