中国经济增长对FDI流入影响实证

中国自1978年实施经济革新和对外开放政策以来,经济以惊人的速度增长,国内生产总值每年增长超过9%。目前中国已成为全球最大的直接投资吸收国,外商直接投资(FDI)的流入大大加快了中国的工业化进程,对中国经济发展起到了至关重要的作用。本文以《中国经济增长对FDI流入影响的实证浅析浅析》为题,从定性和定量两个角度阐述我国吸收外商直接投资与经济增长之间的相关性。一方面是对既有实践的经验性总结,另一方面也为我国进一步合理有效吸收外商直接投资,提供直观的实证支持。但是,在取得巨大成就的同时,我们也应该清醒地认识到我国在吸收外商直接投资中所存在的不足,这些不足一定程度上影响了我国吸收外商直接投资的实际效益。有鉴于此,浅析浅析研究我国吸收FDI的近况特点,找出其存在的不足,将有助于我国采取更加合理的政策有效引导FDI,从而推动我国经济快速健康发展。本文收集了中国29个省份的历年GDP和FDI数据,在索洛(Solow)模型的基础上,并借鉴新经济增长理论的观点,运用了四个回归模型来验证外商直接投资与中国经济发展的主要要素之间的内在关联机制。本文认为GDP对FDI显著的正向作用,因为经济规模越大,潜在的市场需求就越高,对外资的吸引力就越大。从这个角度来说,推动经济增长的确是吸引FDI的一种有效手段。GDP越高的地区吸收的外国直接投资越多,这与FDI在整个世界的分布情况一致,即资本主要流向发达或高速增长的经济体。自卢卡斯(1990)提出该不足以来,经济学界对此进行了广泛的研究,虽然仍然没有得出完全令人信服的解释。但有一个结论是清晰的,要想吸引外商直接投资流入,确保国家经济增长是至关重要的条件。本文分为六个部分。第一部分介绍论文的研究背景、意义、具体的研究策略以及研究框架;第二部分是文献回顾和评述,介绍国内外学者研究FDI及其对经济增长影响的主要理论和成果;第三部分介绍我国利用外商直接投资的状况,并对利用外商直接投资历史进行回顾,总结其特点;第四部分对1984年以来我国经济增长对外商直接投资的影响作用进行实证浅析浅析,通过四种不同的回归模型来得出实证结果。第五部分在结合定性与定量浅析浅析结果的基础上,对当前我国如何更有效地利用外商直接投资提出具体的对策倡议。

【Abstract】wWw.shuoshilunwen.com Since 1978, China’s economic reform and the adoption of open door policy, China has experienced economic growth miracle with GDP growth rate over 9% per year. China has become the world’s largest direct investment absorbed country. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow plays a key role in this remarkable achievement. In this research paper, "An Empirical Study About Economic growth’s impact on FDI growth " as the subject, the relationships between FDI and economic growth are going to be discussed from two sides which are qualitative and quantitative. On the one hand, it makes the good summary of the pasted facts. On the other hand, it can provide the reasonable evidence to support our country’s further foreign direct investment. However, we should realize that the problems in the FDI when we get the great achievements, and these problems can affect the benefits which are caused by FDI. Thus, based on the analysis of the adoption of FDI in China, it is better to find out the problems, and we should adopt more rational policy to guide the action of FDI, so as to provide rapid development of economy growth.In this paper, we collected annual data of GDP and FDI for 29 provinces. Based on the basic Solow model and new economic growth theory, there are four regression models to be tested for the relationships between FDI and GDP growth. We believe that the GDP growth he positive and significant impact on FDI growth, since the economic size is bigger, the potential demand of the market is higher and of course it is more attractive for FDI inflow. Based on this view, the promotion of GDP growth is a kind of effective method to attract FDI inflow. The region with the GDP is higher; the size of foreign direct investment is much bigger. And it is the same situation as the distribution of GDP and FDI in the whole world that is capital stock inflows into developed countries. Since Lucas mentioned this point at 1990, there are various ways to be discussed about this point. But there is no rational and ailable explanation for this idea as yet. Anyway, the growth of GDP is the key point for the foreign direct investment inflows.There are six parts in this paper. The background, methodology and structure are introduced in the 1st part. The 2nd part is literature review; we introduce the main theory and results of FDI growth on economic growth. In the 3rd part, we describe the use of FDI and sum up its characteristics. The 4th section, we use four different models to analysis the relationships between GDP and FDI growth. In the 5th section, based on the results of qualitative and quantitative analysis, we provide the specific suggests to how to use the FDI more efficient.

【关键词】 外商直接投资;经济增长;相关性;
【Key words】 Foreign direct investment (FDI);economic growth;correlation;

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