关键词碳关税;制造业;出口结构;社会福利;GTAP模型
A文章编号1002-2104(2014)03-0005-08doi:103969/jissn1002-2104201403002
2009年,美国通过了《美国清洁能源法案》,计划从2020年开始对进口的高碳排放产品征收碳关税,碳关税征税对象主要包括钢铁、水泥、化学工业等能源密集型商品。目前,我国温室气体排放总量中约有四分之一是因对外贸易活动引起的,其主要排放产业是来自制造业。作为国际贸易中“隐含碳”和国际投资中“碳泄露”大国,“中国制造”将面对“碳关税”的严峻考验。
1文献综述
作为一种新型绿色贸易壁垒,国内外学者对碳关税产生的出口效应进行了深入研究,普遍认为碳关税会对被征收国的出口产生不利影响。Dong和Whalley详细分析了碳关税对全球福利、贸易流量和生产的潜在影响,认为碳关税会降低承诺国的进口,增加其他国家的进口,而欧盟和美国对中国实施碳关税会降低中国的出口[1]。Everett et al.利用GTAP-E模型研究发现,欧盟实施碳关税会减弱其能源密集型部门的进口竞争力,但会增强这些部门的出口竞争力[2]。Babiker运用多区域世界经济的可计算一般均衡模型,发现如果中国被征收碳关税将遭受巨大损失[3]。
王有鑫利用中美两国的贸易和关税数据进行时间序列分析,得到结论:征收碳关税将导致出口产品下降,出口规模缩减;出口国国内开征碳税,会使出口上升,产量减少,但对出口规模的影响不明确;在30/60美元碳关税率下,短期内中国对美国出口将下降1.38%-6.44%;在长期冲击将加剧,出口下降8.69%-40.54%[4]。杨立强等利用GTAP7.0模拟美欧等发达国家征收碳关税对我国出口贸易的影响,结论认为碳关税税率越高对我国出口冲击越大,而高碳行业受到的冲击较其他行业更高[5]。沈可挺等采用动态CGE模型测算了碳关税对中国工业出口的影响。发现每吨碳30美元或60美元的关税率可能使中国工业部门的出口量分别下降
3.53%和6.95%[6]。
而在碳关税引发的福利效应理由上,国内外学者至今未形成统一意见。一些学者认为实施碳关税产生的福利效应不显著,如Springmann通过构建CGE模型,比较了征收碳关税所产生的外部效应与建立国内排放交易体系所产生的内部效应对附录1国家的经济影响。结果表明,附录1国家扩展其国内排放交易体系的行业覆盖范围,比对未在附录1中的国家征收进口碳关税更能提高其福利水平,而未在附录1中的国家由于出口产品未被征收碳关税,其福利也会显著提高[7]。Dong和Whalley构建了包括美、中、欧盟及世界其他国家的CGE模型并模拟美欧对从中国进口的商品征收碳关税的环境影响,研究表明碳关税对全球环境的积极影响不显著[8]。Warwick和Peter建立了一个多部门、多国模型分析了碳关税的经济和环境效应,结果发现碳关税的福利效应不显著,甚至不能抵消其对国际贸易的不利影响[9]。另有部分学者认为实施碳关税可以增加社会福利,如曲如晓等人通过理论分析发现进口国征收碳关税能提高本国福利水平,降低出口国的福利水平,但福利变化程度取决于进口国国内碳税、出口国是否征收国内碳税、进出口国国内碳密集度水平等情况[10]。Danial通过构建局部均衡碳关税模型,分析得出实施碳关税能提高全球福利。此外,还有学者认为应从征收国、被征收国两个角度出发来看待碳关税的福利效应[11]。Hubler运用GTAP模型分析了对中国征收碳关税的福利效应,结论认为征收碳关税会使工业国家的福利提高,使中国的福利受损[12]。Manders et al.发现在欧盟排放体系下实施碳关税政策能有效减少碳泄漏的发生, 对欧盟有利,但是其他国家的福利将会受损[13]。
综合分析现有文献,我们发现关于碳关税对中国制造业贸易结构影响的研究虽取得一定成果,但仍存在以下三个理由:第一,关于碳关税对整个国家的影响研究较多,而对具体部门或行业的影响研究较少,尤其是对制造业贸易结构的影响研究更少,这就使得研究成果及政策倡议可实施性较弱。第二,国外学者对碳关税的福利效应还未形成统一看法,而国内学者普遍认为碳关税会造成出口国的福利损失,这就不能从全球整体角度达成一致减排的意见。第三,目前大多数研究都局限于国外征收碳关税对我国的影响,并未考虑征收国内碳税的效应。而利用WTO禁止国际重复征税的规定,实行国内碳税可以避开发达国家对我国出口产品征收碳关税。因此,为了深入分析碳关税对我国制造业出口结构的影响,本为在我国制造业碳排放目前状况的分析基础上,首先进行碳关税效应的理论分析,并将国内碳税效应考虑在内,进而利用GTAP模型模拟碳关税对我国制造业出口结构以及社会福利的影响,以期为我国制造业应对碳关税或其他碳壁垒提供政策借鉴。[5]杨立强,马曼. 碳关税对我国出口贸易影响的GTAP模拟分析[J]. 上海财经大学学报,2011,(5): 75-81. [ Yang Li, Ma Man. GTAP Simulation Analysis of the Effects of Carbon Tariffs on Chinese Export Trade[J]. Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, 2011,(5): 75-81.]
[6]沈可挺,李钢.碳关税对中国工业品出口的影响:基于可计算一般均衡模型的评估[J]. 财贸经济, 2010,(1): 75-82. [ Shen Keting, Li Gang. The Impacts of Carbon-Motivated Border Tax Adjustment to China’s Industrial Exports: A CGE Based Analysis[J]. Finance & Trade Economics, 2010,(1): 75-82.]
[7]Springmann M. A Look Inwards: Carbon Tariffs Versus Internal Improvements in Emissions-trading Systems[J]. German Institute for Economic Research, 2012,(34):228-239.
[8]Dong Y, Whalley J. Carbon Motivated Regional Trade Arrangements: An analytics and Simulations [J]. Economic Modelling, 2011,(28):2783-2792.
[9]Warwick J, Peter J. The Economic and Environmental Effects of Border Tax Adjustments for Climate Policy [R]. Brookings Institution.2008,(7):1-37.
[10]曲如晓,吴洁. 论碳关税的福利效应[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(4):37-42. [ Qu Ruxiao, Wu Jie. Study on Welfare Effects of Carbon Tariffs[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment,2011,21(4):37-42.]
[11]Daniel G. Global Welfare Implications of Carbon Border Taxes[R].CESifo Working Paper,2009,(2790):1-26.
[12]Hubler M.Can Carbon Based Import Tariffs Effectively Reduce Carbon Emissions? [R].Kiel Working Paper,2009,(1565):1-26.
[13]Manders T, Veenendaal P. Border Tax Adjustments and the EU-ETS: A Quantitative Assesent[R].CPB Document,2008,(171):1-36.
AbstractIn recent years, carbon emissions from environmental issues gradually evolved into political and economic issues. Carbon tariffs is promoting the new trade barriers of developed countries; in order to enhance its industrial competitiveness, it will produce unforable impact on the developing country. Concentrated on manufacturing industries which is the most intensive high-carbon industry in China’s export structure, this article studies the relationship between carbon tariff policy and industrial structure of export trade and builds up relation between climate change and international trade. First, by means of establishing a partial equilibrium model, it applies geometric analysis and mathematical analysis to compute the impact on China’s manufacture export trade consequences of the introduction of U.S. carbon tariff on China’s manufacture industry that already imposes a domestic shipping carbon tax. Furthermore, with the application of GTAP model, it estimates the overall economic and welfare effects on China’s manufacture industry if U.S. and Europe introduce carbon tariff by means of 4 ways, and then analyzes the influence on our country manufacturing industry export structure and our social welfare. The result shows that the introduction of U.S. carbon import tariff lowers China’s export price and export volume; the implementation of a domestic carbon tax justifies a higher export price and a lower export volume for China, however, the degree of export reduction is aller than that under the effect of U.S. carbon tariff; in the case of developed countries imposing carbon tariff on China’s energy-intensive industries, such as the chemical industry rubber products, oil and coal processing industry and paper industry , whose export would reduce; the negative impact on paper industry is the most severe, which will cause a decrease in paper industry’s export from 1.79% to 6.05%, whereas the other industries’ export will increase; it will promote China’s manufacturing industry to adjust the export structure in a certain extent; as well, it will lead to a decrease in China’s welfare, whose reduction is between US$2.134 billion and US$8.347 billion. Finally, this paper proposes advices on international coordination, export structure adjustments, green manufacturing adjustments as reference for the development of China’s manufacturing industry.
Key wordscarbon tariff; manufacturing industry; export structure; social welfare; GTAP model